This isn't precisely a guide, but contains tips and brief introduction to simple mathematical probability to help you succeed.
First, the tips:
1) Change channel for every success AND failure of EACH upgrade attempt.
2) Try to upgrade in channels that have the lowest population.
3) Try to upgrade in hours where most people are asleep/afk.
4) When going to +6 --> +7:
a) Use a core enhancer on a core.
c) Attempt to make your item +7.
5) When upgrading expensive items that require UCHH, it is best to attempt only one/two upgrade per day.
6) If you succeed on going to +7 for one item, STOP ATTEMPTS. You just got very lucky. You WILL NOT GET LUCKY TWICE. So don't even try.
It's all probability.
1) If you succeed once, getting a success again right away is low. 25% only in fact. (50% x 50% = 25%).
2) If you failed once, getting a fail again right away is also low. 25% only in fact. (50% x 50% = 25%).
3) Failure rate increases as the quality of your item increases.
Yes, it is easier to upgrade titanium to +7, for example, than getting redosmium to +7.
4)The higher + you get, the failure rate increases.
What you want to do, is balance out your failures and successes of your series of attempts. If you got a lot of successes (including +1~+6 in one go), you DO NOT WANT TO TRY TO MAKE THAT ITEM, OR ANY OTHER ITEM, +7 ON THAT DAY.
Getting six successes in one go is 0.5^6 = 0.015625 = 1.56%.
Meaning gaining six successes in a row has a 1.56% chance of happening.
Getting a SEVENTH success in one row is 1.56% x0.5 = 0.78125%.
PLUS, getting a seventh success is hard anyway. So it will probably be even lower.
So why does waiting a day make upgrading more successful? Because, during the next day when you don't upgrade, OTHER PEOPLE will attempt upgrades. The server rolls random dice to calculate successes and failures for all those people, meaning the probability is completely reset for you, when you try to upgrade on another day. It's the same as poker or a slot machine: people leave the table or machine that just gave them a jackpot and move to another, because the probability of winning at that same table/machine again is very, very low. Then, they watch that machine/table, and wait until a lot of failures and losses occur, suffered by other people. This means that the chance for winning has increased, yes? That's when they return to that table and machine.
This is why you change channels, and why you don't want to upgrade too frequently in one day.
So how DO people get +7? Sheer luck? No. Mathematical, calculated risk taking.
The server is like a lottery. If there are 500 people in one channel, all trying to upgrade/craft something, then the chances of one person getting a good upgrade/good craft result is lower than when you are in a channel by yourself, for example. THIS IS WHY YOU WANT TO CRAFT/UPGRADE IN LOW POPULATION CHANNELS.
When upgrading multiple items, let's say you failed to go to +5 from +4 two times in a row. This is a very rare occurrence. It is not hard to get +5, but you failed twice. This means that the next attempt has a higher chance of being a successful upgrade.
So what do you do? Use a core enhancer on a core BEFORE changing ch. Change ch, or return to the same ch if it still has the lowest population.
This is still risky, but the calculations suggest your chances of success is higher than normally. Quite higher.
Edited by lPrincexD, 09 October 2010 - 10:28 AM.